Follow The Great Recession Blog to understand where we're headed during this time of economic collapse. The economic commentary to the right has accurately predicted the path of the ongoing Great Recession for several years. I'm a hard-hitting, equal-opportunity critic toward either Republicans or Democrats because neither political party has the vision our economy needs, while our windbag economists have proven worse than weather forecasters in their economic predictions.
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The site currently has That pattern appears to be repeating now. And that was just its first crash on the long road to despair. The fall from the highest point in is January of this year. That gives you a sense of the scale of things that I believe are still to come. It still had a lot further to work its way down in and 32 see graphs that follow. A graph of the stock market crash of over the longer term. Graph of the series of stock market crashes from to The importance of looking on a percentage basis is that a point drop in the market means you lose half of your money if the market was only at a total of points; but when the market is at 20, points, a point drop is only a loss of half of a percent of your money.
So, the percentage of the market lost in each drop can be more important than the actual number of points lost. Every time it crashed, it bounced way back up and then fell again.
Two steps down, one step up; two steps down, one step up. The market rounded downward in late November and December, and took its first drop into the Epocalypse in January. Many feel the bear has been caged by this rally. Not by a long shot.
When you look at the Great Depression, you can see how something like the Epocalypse I have been describing cannot be assessed by the first drop over the edge. It is a far greater beast that is the sum of many drops, but the first one made us dizzy enough to get some major attention. That ought to tell you how big the whole monster is.
Chart of crash of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in and In this case, you can see the market rounded off twice before it fell over the cliff, and the rounded top had a lot more duration than in There has not been anything remotely resembling a true bull market for well over a year.
Talk of a bull market, as if it still exists, is lower than ludicrous. The Dow rounded off to its highest point in June of So, in my view, we are still in a declining or bearish market as measured by the Doweven today, as we have not broken out of that trend.
The Fed also continues to maintain the huge money supply it created under quantitative easing. While it has stopped Q. That is a first in the world of economics. The mere thought of that should scare you. Things do round off first. Just like where we are now in Yesterday, it slipped to stall speed. More so than at any time I remember in my 56 years of living. So, this question about the latest rally remains in the balance: You know there is no question in my mind about where this is going.
I only point out that the jury is not in yet. You could be right. So, you still have to come down to the stupidity of millions and if not of the millions, why not of those at the top, too? In other words, if the mainstream press is in on the conspiracy, so are the economists and the market analysts that they quote all the time. That means thousands and thousands of people are doing a near-perfect job of keeping the big secret from the masses. The same combination of foolishness that obviously blinds the masses could be just as rampant among our leaders so that stupidity that governs based on narrow thinking.
The Great Depression of the s and Its Origins
Nevertheless, you could well be right. Either perspective is hard to swallow — extreme stupidity and blindness that runs all the way up to the top, or a small oligarchy of conspirators with an earth-destroying secret that is advocated throughout the press and kept all the way to the bottom. I guess it is a matter of which you find hardest to believe. If you are an economist, you more than likely work for a University, Government, Financial Institution, or Media Outlet.
In those cases, you are ordered to tow the line, and report as you are ordered. You keep your personal findings and opinions to yourself. If you refuse, you will be fired immediately. So, thus there are an enormous amount of economists who say what they are ordered to say and back what they are told is the narrative. This is looking more and more like a repeat — except worse, with technology and nuclear weapons. We are about to see attempts at economic wizardry that go even beyond the bizarro world of negative interest rates.
Add to that the political gridlock between Democrats and Republicans, who both serve Wall Street, allowing big banks to become twice too big to fail, bailing out the rich but not the poor, and not prosecuting the corrupt because of corporate laws that give those at the top far too much protection.
Add to it that neither Dems and Repubs have a single visionary idea in their smug little heads, and neither is capable any longer of working with the other side for the good of the country.
This has nothing to do with trading more with doom and gloom generating clicks. The market does not care about your emotions.
This is a big correction to purge bullishness and greed, nothing more. Please spare me the same bearish bullshit which I listen every time for years and listen carefully — the next cyclical bear which will cut the markets in a half and finish the secular bear market is a few years away.
Major top in after another ATH. No, just studying the markets. Bear markets and deep corrections in a bull market have clear and distinct behavior.
This is not a bear market, there is no one single similarity between and now. Just a big correction and another months lower for the end of the 9 year cycletake another years for the next one higher and there you have it. I just want to spare you the disappointment. There will be another leg lower all perma bears will cry the end of the world again just to be torn apart again.
Except that a Permabear repeats the same bad news time and again, year after year, like the proverbial broken clock that is still right twice a day. I stopped writing this blog for a year and half because I was certain nothing bad was going to happen for about two years. So, I gave it a rest, and nothing bad happened. I jumped back in half a year before the bull market died because I could see the bull was going to die in half a year, so I wanted to start sounding the alarm.
The market has yet to disappoint my beliefs … apparently even this time, though it looked like it was coming close. If it broke through that ceiling significantly, I was prepared to say I was wrong; but the ceiling I talked about here seems to be holding as solid as ever. The sure sign of a major bear market is that every single rally fails. And that constant decline has happened in spite of the highest level of stimulus the Fed has ever applied outside of QE.
That makes this a major bear market. Ultimately, I think charts predict nothing. They tell you what is happening, and what is happening is a rounded top, which means an ever lower ceiling on the downhill side of the curve where we are. If it crashes like all other major crashes, it will rebound, crash again, rebound, crash again, but keep driving itself into the grave. In half a year, travel back in time to this page and tell me when you actually have some facts on your side IF you do, as right now there is nothing to support your argument that I was full of crap.
This correction does not fulfill a single point of this. I hear the same over and over again from people which are… sorry but just clueless. The correction has months more to go but at the end this is not the big bear which you expect. Enjoy the correction as long as it is running after that you will be disappointed again. See, it is a bear market. Sentiment has been WAY TO BULLISH for months now.
It is only beginning to crack up halfway into the bear market. Sentiment is not usually too bullish once your halfway into the bear market, but this is the difference, again, between predicting a bear and identifying one after it is obvious.
At the start of the present decline and through most of it, sentiment was ludicrously bullish. Why should it happen now? Why not in years as I wrote? Wether in one month or 3 years its close and getting a lot closer. It is MHO inevitable and its gonna be catastrophic! You are right, in we were a major lending nation, now we are a debtor nation. When the debt reaches a few trillion more, we could be a banana republic…. Because the only two pillars supporting the long bull market were trillions of dollars of free Fed money QE and zero interest policy.
So, the lift from QE has stopped … AND THAT LIFT WAS MASSIVE. That pillar is now BEING removed. It is not removed all at once, but interest rates are being adjusted back up. The pillar is being taken down a section at a time. So, that lift is fading. Moreover, the amount of lift it provides is diminishing even when more of it is added.
Banks that have gone to negative interest have discovered it makes the situation worse. Other banks are finding that ZIRP is getting to be old hat.
Another prop to the market though not a pillar has bee large amounts of stock buybacks, but those were largely made possible through number 1 and 2 above. With free money and cheap credit fading, stock buybacks are also in decline. See my latest article. Buybacks have provided much of the lift to stock prices. Moreover, I suspect those buybacks are largely aimed at helping the executive employees of the corporations keep the benefit of their stock options before the ship goes down. Likewise, they help the major investors sell out without damaging the price of the stock because the buybacks create demand for the massively increased supply of stocks to be sold.
Otherwise, those investors would crash the price of their own stocks when they dump them. So, two pillars are gone or going, and the third support found its strength from the other two, so its going, too. REALITY creates charts, not the other way around. The crumbling ground and the badly cracking foundation are all you need to know it is time to move.
Use charts to get a check on what is happening. Failing foundations trump numbers every time. I also think the only reason we have a short bounce up here, is speculation on oil prices which helped the energy sector recover here after being hammered.
I think this is short lived, but its hard to make a call on oil. And it is such a foolish basis for a rally given the threads it hangs upon and ignorance it shows toward numerous other forces impacting the economy. It looks desperate for a reason to rally.
The bulls are bull-headed that way. The decline has exceeded nine wall street journal forex probe now. It has not been steady because this is the first time in history when we have a market falling apart while it is on massive stimulus.
My point was never to say everything about this market matches past crashes but to point out certain things investment options for 10 lakhs past crashes that contradict people who say this market is not crashing.
One of those things is the notion that markets just fall off a cliff suddenly when they crash big. They round off and then crash. Markets do not go into major crashes by just falling off a cliff.
They round off into a downward trend and then fall off a cliff. So, I am pointing out that rounding off then falling matches past crashes. Some people believe they are safe because it rounded into a downward trend. My point with that aspect of the graph is that that is exactly the way a really big crash happens. There are too many deep troubles in a big crash for no one to have any sense that it is coming, so the market starts to falter downward, even if few know exactly what the trouble is.
In this case, the rounded top is much broader, but that is where you have to apply your sense over slavish attention to charts. OF COURSE it is much broader than in the crash of That is because, as Rich has said, it is happening during a time of massive stimulus, which is HUGELY stretching out the timeline. I was CERTAIN that QE would prop the market up for a long time because QE was massive and it was on top of lowered interest rates that were lowered much further than normal — so a double-dose of massive measures.
There was no question in my mind that the market would not give way until QE ended. Then zero-interest-rate policy would help keep it floating along for some time but with diminishing returns.
Then zero interest would come, and that would be the FIRST fall of the cliff, which it was. That brings me to the second similarity that I was pointing out super easy forex looking at past crashes, and I am kiva systems stock price it out because it global futures brokerage not how many people think of a crash.World Economy : Chart shows similarities between 1929 Stock Market Crash and Today (Feb 17, 2014)
My point with the graphs is to demonstrate that but also to highlight mbank mforex konkurs many crashes mean MANY RALLIES, and I have said all along this crash will take a long time to play out I think, at least a year and a half to find its bottomand that there will be many false rallies along the way. You are right that this rally exceeds a normal bear market rally by far.
So, that could mean I am wrong; BUT you would be a fool to jump to that conclusion without pondering it more deeply. We are still under stimulus, as I mentioned earlier, that far exceeds anything normally applied to a recession. We are falling into a recession during a time when the pedal is already to the medal.
We are still for practical reasons sitting on the zero bound of interest rates. So, great depression stock market graphs does a bear-market rally look like when it happens in the completely abnormal environment of full Fed acceleration at a time when the returns for that acceleration are wearing off.
This is a brave new world. So, pointing out certain major similarities to previous crashes on charts does not mean the charts should match up exactly. You have to ask if the inconsistencies can be better explained as this not being a crash or as this being a crash that is happening in an environment unlike any crash in history.
In other words, can the differences in the graph of the crash be explained by the differences in the environment, and I think they can. Well, it should be since it is happening in an environment of maximum stimulus and rounding down as the stimulus fades. They should be since they are forex trading alligator indicator in an environment that provides a lot more artificial buoyancy.
We are not north pole trading company stockings jcpenney earth anymore. When you find that the anomalies can be readily explained by the differences between the artificial financial environment and the normal environment, then they reinforce the conclusion. It has fallen half of that distance or more by all indexes.
No bear market reaches that point until it reaches that point! I never said it has reached that level though by some indexes it hasand I never said the charts match the Great Depression. The analysis above one word — junk. Sorry I am not a perma-bull, but this above is really a piece of junk. Perma-bear compared to what…. There is no doubt in my mind, we are in a bubble. So they kicked the can down the road and so now this crash could be much worse. The only way it will be able to not crash is with another round of QE and one that is ginormous in comparison the the last….
Yet, I suspect it will be much less effective and not prop up the bubble for nearly as long this time. I am shorting the market until QE is announced, then I will short it again a few months later. QE, FED, bubble, debt,crash…. Every time the same bullshit. Great depression stock market graphs against the trend does not make you right,brave or smart it makes you just another stupid perma-bear.
It is simple the trend changes when you see impulse in the opposite direction and weak retracement — well visible in and What do you have now? If you are lucky there will be one more zig-zag lower to for SP I have seen many like you and I have all this behind me.
I am just trying to help, but it is always the same…. And that is exactly why Permabulls lose money when stock markets crash. If you wait for the weak retracement of a chart to prove you are in a bear market, you have already died and gone to investment hell. The only possible way to know that a charts retracement is weak is to wait until the retracement turns around, and the market clearly is running down again. By the time you do that, you are already well into the second leg of the crash.
You are selling in a rapidly falling market. If you find yourself in that position, the only thing you can do to save yourself from market hell is to sell everything below market value in order to get out immediately. Those who stay in until that way-late juncture and who keep trying to get the best price they can on any asset in any kind of market just wind up riding the market all the way to the bottom. He makes his way to the exit ahead of the crowed.
He sees the bear market in advance which would have been back in early December. Shorting against the trend makes you right when it works. There are many permabears who call bear markets routinely and then brag when they are finally online stock trading with paypal and say they are the one who saw it coming.
They get away with it because none of the other experts saw it coming either. There tygervalley trading hours today numerous reasons to believe this market is crashing all around us. The wise person got out before it became political cartoon on stock market crash in 1929 market squall.
Garbage and more garbage: For you the market movements are voodoo magic. You are sooooo clueless, and you are describing the behavior of a amateur like you. When you do not know what you talking about just leave it. I am not permabul or permabear. I do not care if the market amazon work from home lexington ky move higher or lower and imagine not everybody is so clueless like you.
Your charts are nothing but astrology. I use charts to demonstrate what is happening, not to prove where the market is going. Understanding the foundations of the market and what is happening to it right now — getting in there and seeing the rot and the crumbling — is what tells you whether the house is about to fall. The charts are Richter scales that tell you how much the house has fallen at any given moment.
So, regardless of what charts say, the rot in the multiday index trading system will win the day every time. You cannot see that it is weak until it has proven itself to be weak, and one way it proves that is by not retracing very stealth forex results before it turns around as well as by its breadth.
By then, it is too late. As for measuring its weakness by breadth — how many stocks are involved and how many investors — that knox binary options trading some merit; but it is no magic formula either. And more garbage from an amateur. Charts are not astrology, the charts are everything.
The charts tell you what the big boys with the money are doing. Anything else is personal perception and the market does not care about your personal perception. The same repeating for years. Means nothing market moved higher and have one more move higher before we see the big bear. The fact is you are do you get drug tested for plasma donations. It is visible on a chart if a move is weak or not before it reverses.
You my statements garbage and just based on opinion and best way to make money rs07, but you give no basis for claiming they are wrong or are nonsense, other than your own opinion and your emotion over having westfield chermside opening hours sunday misled in the past by permabears.
I point out the illogic or the contradiction. You also offer nothing to support your views that charts show you the way to the future. Your points are well taken. So let me ask. How would the role depository stock market have moved over the last years if there was no How to win 60 second binary options kas tai, QE, and if interest rates were not artificially kept down?
How can there be a normal manic phase of this bull market if this is a fake bull market fundamentally speaking? So, when the whole bull market has been propped up and not based on a growing and vibrant economy, how can you predict there will be a normal manic phase coming? I do concede that perhaps with more QE they can continue to prop it up for who knows how long. Yet, due to the fact they are taking these measures, nothing was fixed at the core and so this crash will be catastrophically worse than it would normally be….
We are on different waves: You are trying to find a rational explanation and to trade it — WRONG traders are irrational. I am on this wave — trading, I can read charts when the price moves higher long, when it moves lower short. What you are writing is irrelevant. I do not care what the reason is. It is every time the same greed and fear causing irrational behavior.
Central banks just amplifying the moves up and down. The humans are the same stupid monkeys like years ago, I do not see now any difference. This is a cyclical bull not secular bull market, make a difference.
I claim too, that there will be one more big bear cutting the prices in a half. The lower low will be in inflationary adjusted value. Great article as always Dave. I would say that we will see a very different ending to this depression then was seen back in the 20ss. That is my humble opinion but I have been wrong so many times a broken watch is right more times than me.
Keep up the good work. The times are very different in terms of how central banks work together and in terms of the extreme stimulus they have already applied, which goes far beyond anything seen in the thirties. However, I think their efforts will now be a strain too big for them to manage and will only be rivaled for success by the programs we have already seen in Japan and Europe.
They have now pushed way beyond the peak of the diminishing returns curve. Just as the law of diminishing returns would indicate, once you round the curve too far, you actually get a worse situation every time you administer your solution.
The more they do, the worse they are making things at this point. I just listened to an interview with Egon Von Greyerz who says pretty much what you are saying. We need to keep in mind about 10 million starved to death during the great depression in a country where there was a lot more farming and people were generally not brain dead and were able to do things for themselves.
This time it is far bigger. The international bankers can only manipulate so long. The new normal looks rather grim. It makes heaven much more appealing! I am 70 and fear only for my children and Grandchildren In humble opinion, there will also be major civil unrest in this country and all over the world. There will be a die off — how much?
One must ask a few basic questions: How long will it last? How bad will it be? How does it get fixed? What will the USA and the world look like when we come out of it? We we still have a government and what kind? We are a different people than we were in the Great Depression, and so this depression that we are starting to realize is going to look a lot angrier.
If people think the populace is angry now, based on the popularity of Trump and Sanders, wait until they see how angry people become when the economy breaks up in major pieces like an ice flow all around them and starts flushing everything out to sea. Paul Ryan said he is disheartened because of the anger at Washington and the primaries. He jst told us that he is clueless and lives in a Bubble — They have not seen real anger, but will soon — ammo up!
Shows how out of touch the leadership of the parties is. What on earth does he think they have accomplished that ANYONE, Republican or Democrat, should be happy about? Clueless, indeed, to what is happening economically all around them. Eight years of obstructionism, may have stopped Obama on some of his plans, but it certainly has not done a thing to right any of the economic ailments of this nation.
They have squandered everything, and I can only hope he and all his colleagues see a great deal more rage for having spent eight years dedicated to obstruction without a single positive, disciplined or helpful idea to put us on a better track. Wait until they bail out their cronies another time … or try to.
I would call it 8 years of complicity between the Establishment Democrats and the Establishment Republicans. The important people, their crony capitalist sponsors, have been taken care of. The needed bail outs were approved. The military adventures to protect their assets in foreign lands were approved. The NSA provided the industrial espionage necessary to maintain their edge in global markets. You make a good point, Cactus. The Republicans make a big pretense of obstructionism, and they are more than glad to oppose Obama on anything that might actually be helpful, such as their opposition in the beginning toward funding shovel-ready projects because it would blow the deficit, though they had no problem blowing the deficit to bail out bankers.
They certainly bring no creative ideas to the table themselves. Republicans and Democrats are Frick and Frack. They certainly have both wholeheartedly supported bail outs for banksters.
Stock Market Chart On Track For Next Great Depression? | Off The Grid News
Republicans came up with the idea, and Democrats have joined in full support ever since. Neither party has pushed to put banksters in jail. Neither has done anything to break up banks that are too big to fail into smaller components that stand alone as separate companies as was done with Ma Bell.
The NSA espionage was all launched by the Republicans, but Obama has fought to keep it as it is, and Democrats have done nothing effective to resist this broad expansion of intrusions.
Simply tell them, in six months you better have worked out a system which I will secretly test to make sure that all vital information gets shared with proper clearances by all departments, and if you fail the test, you are fired. But the leaders at the top are his cronies, too.
Scary market chart gains traction - MarketWatch
There will be no fighting back from the people of the nation. They will surrender and give up their gun the moment the squad car pulls up in the driveway. Yet, not one pulls a gun and defends anyone, nor themselves.
The president has the military, and their guns are bigger; so, anyone who takes on that fight will die or wind up arrested, as they choose. What I am hoping is that the public might smarten up enough to start voting against establishment politicians. Therefore, I am heartened that he is seeing clearly that there is a groundswell against the establishment, which means against him as part of the establishment. His disheartening is my cheer because he is so establishment, offering only the same answers Republicans have put forward for thirty years.
Only because the public are mere robots today with no thought processes at all. The moment you mention anything to them, they start with the name calling and have no facts or truth to dispute with.
Every President since Woodrow Wilson have been hand selected and installed. Every member of Congress is corrupted and criminal in all their actions. Just look at the comments here.
People talking about Paul Ryan as if he was some decent person that cares. Ryan is a corrupted America hating criminal, and hates you and I. Yet, people talk like the politicians have any care or desire to do anything.
As I mentioned, the public are brain dead. The only thing that give me hope is the number of angry people who are coming forward because of Trump and Sanders, now that people among both Democrats and Republicans have had an actual option that is not the establishment in either party.
It may be that their reasons for being angry have less to do with the economy than other things, so there is likely not a critical mass that can change things, but that could change quickly if people see another economic crash that happens for similar reasons.
I know the Obama Admin and its pocket full of bankers will do all they can to maintain the illusion until the end of his term to safeguard his hopes I believe of becoming UN Secretary General, but I really do not see how they can patch things together that long.
Already, you read many bankers and economists and brokers and stock analysts saying that Trump will be a disaster for the economy. You remind me of a sign I once saw on the wall of a Leadville, Colorado bar in an old mining town:.
And I suspect you and I are going to outlive your and my country. Indeed, a few years ago, i thought Jesus was coming back very soon, before today for sure. I now see things getting globally worse by the day, Heaven is looking better and getting closer everyday. Always cogent, always well-written, always willing to speak against his own party when they're nuts.
Rogue Mornings — Saudi Shakeup, Market Exit?
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Where Oh Where Has the Rally Gone? For the first time in a loooong time I get to play the short side. It is my belief that the destruction of the economy is by design……….
Keep in mind that centuries ago, people just like us argued that the earth was flat! So yeah, not an exact repeat of the Great Depression. It will dramatically WORSE. John Little omegashock dot com. Welcome to the blog. See some of my comments to Shushumiga below. Keep your seatbelt on, the ride is only going to get rougher. With one pillar gone, and the other being removed, the market is crumbling NOW.
The supports are gone, and they were the only thing holding this balloon market up anyway. Yes, they would arrest you for counterfeiting. There will be no anesthesia for the next round. Americans, including the worthless and cowardice military, are useless.
You remind me of a sign I once saw on the wall of a Leadville, Colorado bar in an old mining town: Welcome to the blog, Jama. Regardless of what you do, thank you for reading the site! I enjoy your company in the comments.