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ASX All Ordinaries Index: Well the Australian stock market closed above today and it looks like the correction has played out much as I expected when I posted Has the stock market correction gone too far?
But I am not getting too carried away with the trade numbers out of China recently. Hey Greg, really like this setup now. Well done — its improving on every revision you make. And the markets have picked this up and discounted the probability of this occuring. So one would expect people will buy the fact once its widely known. If you buy in Panic and can hold through the volatility, you will generally comeout ahead.
The Norweigans seem to have mastered the art. Maybe BP and others need to contract the experts to totally manage all production. We all considered that at some point governments might intervene in the energy business es ; but this and future such mishaps make Exxon look insignificant. Getting at the stuff is going to become more expensive… and riskier. And, as it becomes more expensive, the risk of shortcuts increases. Speaking of BP, looks as though…after perhaps one more pull back…BP will be marching into a recovery in terms of its share price.
The question now is will the recovery levels hold as more of their potential liabilities clarify. But one would expect if the shareprice makes a substantial recovery i. Maybe some left field event to further restrict supply? Inflation adjusted oil prices are around the levels they were in Not much of rise given the obvious supply constraints.
Still pretty bearish out there. Lots of people comming out of the woodwork with their double dip thesis. Well the rally across the major markets seems to have come to a screeching halt. Still I expect the Australian stock market to get a boost when the Resources Super Profits Tax RSPT is either buried or heavily modified. Well if Julia gets in the RSPT is gone. I think your comments are on the money, Anon. The only way Labor can extricate itself from the current impasse is if they ditch Rudd.
I kinda feel sorry for Rudd…the more I look at it, the more this possibly looks like it was planned from a very longtime ago just waiting for an opportune moment to pounce. How cold and backstabbing is politics — you need a tough skin.
Well, the perception of a Gang of Four, making most of the decisions, without any consultation, was probably clever media spin which worked against Rudd, politically….
The RSPT was so badly conceived and managed that it reinforces perceptions that Rudd a. The sheer financial stupidity of borrowing that kind of sum against your home equity is laughable. Buying some stocks here and unwinding some portfolio puts.
Will likely be a slow and grindy type of rise. My technical models are screaming a bottom now. The last time we had 8 candles like this on the XAO was March 03 just before the 5 year bull-run. Not to say that would happen again — it would be unlikely — but my bet is a slow developing rally over several months into December. I reckon it will all come out in the wash and there is another rally in the old market.
But looks a long way off and of course looks like it will be a stretch to hit this year. Lets see if this call works out which is unlikely. Although holding through a bear market post crash and bull market post correction are completely different beasts i.
There was a recent study done suggesting there were ususually low levels of stock pickers in the market, which is a bullish sign for this method going forwards. At the top of the market we had everyone bullish and all the stars lining up China, economic recovery etc and at the bottom almost everyone is bearish and the doomers are all calling for another crash. I hope the people who are getting in now can survive a possibly big drawdown in equity and unpredictable shocks.
I wish them well and hope they can make good returns.
According to the weekly survey from Investors Intelligence, bearish sentiment rose to Although bearish sentiment is on the increase, a plurality of advisors still consider themselves bullish Still feel a big up move is comming. Although, prepared for the fact it could break to new lows before starting this uptrend, in order to flush out weak hands. The Euros rise could be a leading indicator for equities near term direction? Looks like Jimmy was correct…should have waited until all the media hype died down before going in!
Have been smacked to the wall on this one. Historically theres plenty of time to get on stocks with situations like this and this was an error on timing. A realtor just rang me two days running, trying to list anything and everything we had. I gently reminded him that he had a reputation for working for buyers, rather than sellers. His response surprised me.
Land is still on the move, with prospective buyers camping out in cold wet weather to bid for blocks well north of Perth. Confidence may have plateaued, perhaps because of the RSPT, perhaps due to the reining-in of immigration, perhaps due to interest rates. So if money is flowing from shares into realty, it must be pretty low-key. I think people just have their hands in their pockets, at the moment.
Alot of wide range sideways action as Greg alluded to aswell likely for the next few months with a big rally possible in Oct-Dec:. Will the pattern hold? The composite equally blends the past behavior in the second year of a presidential term, years ending in zero and the annual seasonal pattern. And we had just started to believe the news mattered. But that could change if house prices do correct a bit. So my entire portfolio is up alittle even though weve fallen 7?
I was up more when we were alot higher and have been in drawdown obviously. But if you dont have drawdowns you cant make money…the two need to happen eventually. Only stuff I ever had a go at trading was a bit of bullion. And despite the fact it was in a bull run about the best I could manage was to break even!
I guess I can feel your pain re: I got burnt when I tried to enter gold…its too volatile for me. I dont make money buying these things. My track record buying commodity stocks is poor aswell…. BP just added to the dismal record. BP but still remained bullish! Like you said awhile back Ned, we have to stick to our circle of competence and not try to do things we are hopeless at!
DJIA has bottomed out here after testing the 9, area huge support. Upwards from here i rkn. Ned you missed an action packed night. Lets hope I dont have to bloody come in again and nurse the thing. Lets pray for a sustained upmove so I can re-buy insurance at much lower prices. At times like these I focus on doing my portfolio paperwork and not watch stock prices too much.
Its very tiring when you get sucked into the mood of the day I must admit. Getting to the stage where its abit pointless reading anything on the financial sites as most of it is wrong or sensationalistic. Just check technicals a few times a week, occasionally fundamentals and sentiment indicators and thats about all you need I rkn.
Keep it simple and infrequent. Looks like we might have abit of a slow bottoming process…not the normal spike back…which I guess is better for a sustainable rally.
The death cross is where the 50dma intersects the dma. Portfolio insurance is abnormally high, volatility has sky rocketed, bears are everywhere…retail investors are trying to short. Lots of warning signs here! But perhaps I am wrong and the market is right. I guess my rationale for investing in the US is mainly my concern for the AUD. Also there appears to be better value in the US atm in terms of growth prospects and large cap cigar butts.
Not looking quite as scarey as it did two hours ago though! Yeh, I can see your logic with avoiding the AUD. DJIA is at the bottom extreme of the bollinger bands. Lets see it bounce! Volume not materially and consecutively below the DMA.
No doubt when we come out of this it we may have periods of declining volume which will then become a bullish indicator. And definitely could have been way worse. The occasional mega bear has started screaming for the end of the world again I see — SP sub etc. It gets abit tiring listening to it. Price Action looks like big buying is occuring so that is what it is. This has happened last 2 days. Might not be pretty when the shorts get squeezed.
It is going to be interesting how Australia stocks hold up if commodities prices soften. Personally I think the mining stocks are already trading at a level where a fall in commodities prices is factored in.
In fact I reckon it is oversold again. But I do wish the BDI would pick up again! I saw your tweet on the BDI Greg. And then went and read that the shippers are all bullish and building more. Followed by a comment that the shippers have been known to be abysmally wrong in the past. Yep, there were motivated buyers at djia 9, alright Anon. The thought crossed my mind a good while back that everyone could save themselves a lot of effort and angst if the markets were only open between Just re-looking at the XAO charts…and entertaining the thought of a further flash down to take out the weak hands.
We really dont want to keep going down like this or else we start getting towards bear market type situation. Regarding the BDI there are a few things at play. Firstly a lot of ships are being delivered but this is largely because of orders placed before the GFC.
On the other hand a large number of ships are being scrapped and many are laid-up. So from what I can tell the overall effect is that a lot of capacity is being taken out of the system and yet, the BDI remains weak. Regarding the BDI agree with Greg…its shocking but stocks and resources…and in some cases ship related listed companies are reflecting this fact and I would argue its now excessively priced in.
Theres clearly going to be a disconnect here between what the economy and stocks will do. Even if we have a slowdown in growth its unlikely to be a recession. And historically its normal to have these slowdowns comming out of deep recessions etc.
Again, how is it possible to have recessionary level stock prices yet no recession? Looks like everyone is preparing for the end of the world again and I think its mainly an over reaction due to the many burnt wounds from the horrible GFC. Usually at bottoms, you get bad news after bad and the market reacts less and less, until it begins to rise on the bad news.
Am I going crazy or does Telstra look like its about to rocket? The charts look interesting…who would have thought this decade long dog would move? I guess you cant get more bearish on it than now?
Almost everyone hates it…the recent government deal superficially looks good re BBN but need to look at it more. But by how much? You know I reckon Rio Tinto and BHP sense prices for iron ore and coal are going to fall and that is why they have agreed to the revised terms of the mining tax.
This is like groundhog day. But no system to it — No thought behind it — Just a matter of how do I save a bit of face and maybe extract a bit more tax revenue from the system.
More ad hoc patchy bandaid sort of stuff from a mob that has no idea what it is doing or how to do anything. The balance of trade numbers made people happy, but I am guessing a lot of this has to do with the AUD getting weaker. I am not sure if I should be pleased or if this is the last gasp of the commodities boom for a while. I reckoned Oz house prices have been a bit high for the last 5 years Anon.
Not that it stopped me buying two of them. Hopefully the states will have a nice rally tonight. It probably is about time for the market to turn around and give all the bears a fright though?
Yep, let the bullrun begin. Yeah Roubini sounds closer to the mark, but the markets are pricing in a recession, not a slowing in the economy…so stocks should do ok this year. And most depressionists comeout at market bottoms. They typically occur every trading days, on average, or every 12 months. Thought this was brilliant in terms of listening to others. Let me give you an example. I read research by people such as Marc Faber. Marc is wonderful, but I have to read him through the prism of sheet music.
Charts are my sheet music; Faber is my Mozart. However, by putting his thoughts and prejudices through a different medium I can raise or lower the volume of Marc and the others. Now the key will be not to sell too bloody early, which is a mistake I am continuously doing.
Their expectations are lower. But trading is a totally different matter if one can make a buck from it. Apart from that, one is down to relying on inflation I guess. Yeah looks good, but we can never be certain in this game. Am constantly belted to the floor everytime I get a hint of overconfidence. What are your thoughts on China Ned?
It appears to me China is a leveraged play on the US economy and Australia is a leveraged play on China. So this decoupling thing has me confused? If US saves more…which seems to be already occuring…then China is in trouble, followed by Australia. If you overlay the MSCI Asia chart with a chart from of US debt to gdp theres a big correlation. For the first time in two decades they are very vulnerable. If I am right and Western economies enjoy subdued economic growth at best, then all of us will be swimming in deflation.
The price of Chinese and indeed all internationally traded goods like steel will need to come down to a level where, despite our misgivings and our collective desire to run down debt, their stuff is just so incredibly cheap that we would definitely consume more. Seems like the market is confused re: Well bght somemore high dividend yielding stocks again.
But that still begs the question of what the heck is the west going to do for a living. As for the others, they seem to have decided austerity is worth a shot. With the extra thing to bear in mind maybe being that if the patsies catch on that inflation is a happening thing, then its value to governments is significantly reduced.
Dumping BP here…close to breakeven so wont push my luck and get out of something that was clearly a mistake. May go higher but other things I can get even better returns on now with much less risk. Will look at it again when its out of the headlines and the full extent of liability is known. Bght some long dated BP calls incase I am wrong. But risk has been substantially cut aswell as giving up some of the upside.
Gotta manage risk and worry about downside before caring about how far it will go. Or at least sellers willing to move on price? Djia very nicely above 9, again. Shorting trading the housing market — A while back the ASX and Rismark were talking about putting something together for those purposes. Not at all sure if anything has come of it yet.
Yep 9, has been breached. Crash Recovery, everyone buys gold and heads into bunkers, gets shotguns. Pray to Allah Bottom is in, while dust settles retail investors sell the bottom and prepare for the end of the world.
Huge rally, retail investors realise they missed out jump into the top again. Big correction — retail investors panic sell quickly before losses accumulate.
The masses think its 08 all over again because its just happened so it must happen again! Rally again — Retail investors stay out doubting the rally. Rally Tops out…retail investors buy in thinking. This sounds eerily familiar? The media bears are going on about rally on low volume again lol. The plan for my bet against housing is around and of course this is not financial advice.
But this is purely a guessing game and I could be completely wrong. Always seek financial advice before making financial decisions.
I can visualise a minor correction on the east coast, but all the indicators tell us the west coast will fly in those years. Hey Biker, what do you reckon about that idea of trading Oz residential RE housing indices on the ASX? Lots of pros and maybe not too many negatives perhaps? Best of all, we know a great deal about our specialist area s.
One of our rental agents, Ray Whites, screens tenants very well. Their rates are fair and reasonable. We actually enjoy the hands-on aspects of property. You guys do get what this discussion is about right? There is another area where house prices are discussed. BDI is not tracking that well lately is it Ned. Its correlation is pretty good with equities over a longer period of time — but damn is it volatile! Not sure how the correlation will hold up over the next 6 months…so far its not tracking well on a short duration basis.
My bet is the correlation will decouple, especially if there is a divergence between equities performance and the economy. But as always could be completely wrong.
The samething happened in Japan in the s. Demographically, the United States is 10 to 15 years behind Japan and the same dynamic is playing out. The path of least resistance for the United States is to go down the deflation path, preferably some mild version where debtors can actually service their debts.
Hyperinflation is not a choice. What was arguably better about the Japanese tragectory was that it created no consumer credit bubbles. American consumers are going to have to retrench the spending that makes up two-thirds of the economy. If these consumer credit bubbles unwind in the United States, deflation is likely to be much stronger than it has been in Japan. This was predicted in btw. By Hedgefund manager Peter Thiel, former founder and ceo of Paypal and owner of Clarium Capital.
Then again we could all be wrong and just have normal levels of inflation for the next several years. Markets continue to rally…not sure why Walmart is not moving much given the good retail data and improving market conditions. Only concern I have is some management changes, which is usually a prelude to a downgrade. But its hard to fault a company that has increased eps for decades…so I wont make that bet for now anyways. In addition Buffet has publicly disclosed he topped up his Tesco holdings recently, which gives bigger weight to the possibility he topped up his Walmart stock both retailers — which would inturn give a boost to the stock price if released.
Although purely guessing and could be wrong. Additionally the longer stocks move sideways generally the bigger the rise when it breaks out. And this is been going sideways for 10 years! Numerous people trying to short it which makes this more bullish as this happens alot on a breakout as people doubt the rise!
Banks also continue to restrict lending following the collapse of the housing market, Fed officials said after their policy meeting last month. Walmart should benefit in a less frugal environment, having lowest prices. Looks like the consumers that Walmart picked up in the recession may not be willing to go back to bigger spending habbits than most analysts projected earlier in the year.
Looks like pound may make a big move up sometime this year as the government becomes less nutty. The proportion of individual investors who expect stocks to rise over the next six months is at its lowest level since March 5, Neutral sentiment, expectations that stocks will stay essentially flat over the next six months, fell This is the first decline in neutral sentiment in six weeks.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stocks will fall over the next six months, surged This is the 15th highest level reading for bearish sentiment since the survey started in He says the stimulus is working and the economy will improve in the next years. Its interesting to also note Buffets father told him to wait around the time he first started to invest.
His father thought the USD was history and he was buying gold and preparing for the end of the world…back in the s…. I looked back and noticed people were doing this in and early 80s and and early s.
Its almost a contrarian signal to go long? Also Jim Rogers said America was history and he would short it back in …aswell he said in that a depression might occur. I think he did the same back in late or early from memory? Looks like the doomists are a signal a recovery is underway and returns will be at least reasonable from these levels!
Although not sure I could handle the known risks if we were above 5, unless material things had changed. Dont get exact entry prices unfortunately!
Been trying to work out where we might go from here… Looks like we might be ok till about September and then another significant forex plano tx possibly, altho the lows now should comfortably hold…. So clearly another shakeout comming in a few months if the patterns play out. These things are still in their early stages though. Perhaps a topout 5, or so in Feb ? Possibly a correction in May and then a much slower several month lower low tanking process.
Anyways, just ideas based on gut feel and could change as things change. When I mentioned the craziness and sharpess of the crashes managed forex account pip choosing few years, Stock trading beginners pdf was talking specifically about the multiple crashes in and and the correction in Just unreal speed at which these things occured.
Historically theres alot of falls that may fall like earlyand but at a much slower pace. Forgot to mention am long aussie banks. Looking cheap and the credit issues are still awhile off. Lower house prices take awhile to filter down into loan losses…. Geez Ned…huge amount of deposits. Albeit stocks may not recover as quickly this time; but as the aritcle says theres alot of people on the sidelines which has generally been a good time to invest in equities.
As George Soros says. Not going to muck around here…going for the jugular! Been making too many bloody errors on position sizing i. Separates poor performance from good imo — altho most freeze when they need to add, and add when they should be cutting been guilty of this many times!
Can change my mind quickly on any decision I make, given markets always change. Have positions in instruments discussed unless otherwise indicated. Had alittle flutter on some ITM long dated calls for Alumina AWC a few weeks back and forgot I had them…lets see how the Alcoa earnings are?
The street seems to be pessimistic which is generally a good sign? AA stock is not moving either which is a good sign perhaps? Or could be another shocker. Albeit I have no idea if we will fall for the next few days. Markets are overbought…but this can easily become more overbought for forexgrail spreadsheet months.
Usually big breakouts are in and stay in overbought territory and then you have all these retail investors trying to fade the rise. I wonder how many people got burnt trying to short the EURO?
I trippled my EURO position overnight, on the pullback, so that my virtual fx positions are more than my entire portfolio. My stomach was not handling this size very well but I have to listen to my intuition and not pass up outliers!!
Looking to add to BP calls position on abit more of a pullback. Bank of America on Friday…should beat given how low analyst expectations are and loan provisioning is at GFC type levels with no GFC. Another kicker for the market? Looking for a top around 4. Looks bloody volatile, but lows should hold comfortably; so hold onto your seatbelts!
Will just ride out the noise until September. Have read two ballpark guesses that the world is only about halfway through its deleveraging process Greg. Anyone see Nufarm today? I guess the warning signs were on the first downgrade; always more cockroaches in the kitchen. Remember one of the other principals I picked out of some general reading once that I suspected could be of use at some time re investing Anon?
Ned for Oz I think might be a little tough simply because I think commodities prices and demand have hit a cyclical peak. With the blokes who can see the genuine reasons feeling they are so obvious that everyone else must be able to see them too and will presumably react I guess? Food, energy, insurance, government charges.
A tricky one would be to get inflation in consumables and deflation in asset prices. Thats so true Ned…. Soros agrees with us re: Maybe around the back half of ? Greg has reason to be using support and resistance in binary options. Lets hope it finds support here and then bounces my gut feeling is we should bounce.
The capital gains tax will rise from 15 percent this year to 20 percent in The dividends tax will rise from 15 percent this year to These rates will rise another 3. Geez thats a catalyst right there. Last 3 Januarys , have had corrections occur. Since the XAO has not had 4 substantial January corrections ever. Might aswell go to the casino! Also for the SPX that stat holds, re: Going to test it back to the early s though as only used a 30 year data set.
DJIA looks like its consolidating nicely before the next run, and the Asx may follow suit given the correlation? Euro has been a leading indicator for the XAO, for now anyways.
So should be interesting to see what happens with the XAO next week and if caused stock market crash 1929 yahoo answers correlation persists. Saw awhile back that the EUR.
USD has gotten near the dma on similar intermediate counter-trends bid ask price forex market big crashes. Almost gave up on this pattern playing out again, but it looks like this correlation is holding thank christ.
Dr Copper says the patient is fine: And the SSE is all a bit sad. Yeah I had a quick look and given the price falls and still huge provisioning for bad loans its not going to make much difference.
Also the prop trading desks of most banks, you would guess, must have made a killing with all this volatility; so profits should be boosted by that let alone the enivitable less provisioning. I think theres a wind bank of prop trading from banks re: But the timeline for that windback is years and shareholders still may make money from the spinoffs that would occur. Markets can be leading and lagging indicators…Leading at first…but then as panic selling sets in…going too far and over compensating for the known risks.
My feeling is Asia is slowing but the markets are over reacting and pricing in a complete collapse in the Asian growth story. There could be an additional discount for the extent of our housing bubble. But this could be a few years out, so I guess onwards and upwards for the moment at least! I try to separate my longterm bias from my investing and trading unless price action is confirming.
USD position as the strength is phenominal.
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My stomach is dying from holding this size but position sizing is everything…and if you dont load up when its going your way your performance will be poor. Looks like the XAO will follow suit on Monday and drop. Hopefully this correction will only hit the 10dma line which the DJIA is about now and bounce. I was thinking about why the BDI is so stuffed. Could it be that China has bght way more commodities than they need short term so now they are in pullback mode?
Therefore China is still powering along but they are using their excessive stockpiles? Which would make BDI unreliable? My gut is telling me lots of companies have loaded up their raw material inventory so they are just running this off hence why BDI has fallen. Your thoughts on the BDI align with a report I read recently. But that is a mid term sort of thing. Good to know Ned. You do alot more indepth research than me.
DJIA looks like its puking. Lets wait for all the doomsday predictionists to comeout right on cue again. Looks like support is around 10, or just below. But lets hope it bounces from here. The DJIA is in a much more bullish formation than the XAO. Seeing 6 bullish candles in a row on DJIA which usually means a continuation of the rally after an overdue pullback from overbought market conditions…yet this is not shown on the XAO.
Might be an indication of a performance differential for both…and I think Greg mentioned this aswell awhile back. Yes, the bears will be able to tell everyone that the end of the world as we know it is coming again. I think my intraday calls are horrible… I said Citigroup is about to breakout and its broken down before it makes its way higher. Albeit I did the same thing when EUR. I think I would go bankrupt. Seems my calls are better for longer texas association of realtors earnest money contract of a few months or more.
Jim Rogers agrees with you there. Although Buffet seems to think developed countries standard of living will be much more improved than what we have employee stock option hedging. Abit hard to see how peoples standard of living can improve when they are all deleveraging!
Although Ken Fisher phillip fishers son seems to think consumer debt can continue to grow as it has for decades. And that the consumer debt bubble arguments are overblown. Something that I remember Jim Rogers mentioned awhile back is the inverse relationship between commodities and equities performance.
Likewise, we have had long bear markets in stocks followed by long bull markets in stocks. When you have a bull market in commodities you have a bear market in stocks. So if Jimmy is right equities would prefer lower commodity prices. So its not necessarily a bad thing for us that commodity prices have come daily compound interest calculator forex somewhat.
Never made any intraday calls thankgod. And it may well have been like that since March all through the rally? And the PIIGS are obviously going to struggle. Here ya go Ned, Fishers opion re: Btw I probably dont agree with this, but I guess its something we need to contemplate. The thing that bothers me regarding the debt issues…is these arguments were occuring in the 70s,80s,90s and s.
And each time people were preaching a world depression and j talon llc forex end of fiat money and consumer spending.
In any event Rogers arguments regarding a bull market in commodities always leading to a bear market is stocks holds weight…a relationship that holds for such a long period has to be taken seriously. So we are in a intermediate bullmarket within a longterm bear market imo. Rogers mentioned commodity bull might end in or so, so live bse stock ticker for mobile will likely be rocky for awhile — making market timing crucial.
Albeit Fisher could be right years from now re: Seems like consensus is the XAO will keep going sideways so you should trade them. Usually when this starts to happen buy free forex compounding calculator download hold works better.
Abit like when everyone wanted to short the AUD when they should of been going long. Just more snake oil salesman that just waste our money! And then do that until the sheep start holding for the longterm again no doubt at the top of the market.
Lets hope we all prosper together and have the ability to be patient. Well the BDI might have bottomed out for now at and it looks like it me be trying to rise again.
But for a country like Australia that depends so much on commodities exports a weak BDI is not a good sign. Remember there are a lot of ships being scrapped and laid up, so I would say that the impact the G20 economic stimulus measures are starting to fade and as a result we will see commodities prices drop back a touch. Yeah, BDI looks to be moving up, altho could slip alittle more before going North — but clearly bottoming out.
Well anything could happen! Historically it takes along time for people how to become a stockbroker in ireland recover emotionally and financially after major crashes like The DJIA charts over are looking eerily familiar to the charts from If that correlation held out Greg could be right and new highs in Or it could take the usual years which would make that The DJIA currently appears to be moving up on bad news housing data …so becoming cautiously optimisitc.
Guess people on the sidelines dont like holding overvalued treasures with terrible yields. Well been fairly inactive last couple of months and for big chunks of this year. Yield Curve shows probability for 10 best penny stocks buy unlikely, as short term rates are lower than long term rates. Weak hands from retailers who bght and held thru the correction, begining to think about selling strength.
So being bullish is clearly the right play atm imo. My technicals are flashing bearish signals, but technicals can be useless at times so wont bother using it here, given the copious amount of data inline with bullish future prospects albeit volatile. Given Britain and Europe are now bringing in plans to cut deficits etc it just leaves the United states which is still a basket case. USD could retest intermediate lows double bottom before marching higher, which is quite abit of downside risk.
Looks like XAO may topout around 4, on this rally over the next few weeks, so not much to go. Am starting to re-insure the portfolio as the rise continues. Then Sept-Oct correction back to perhaps 4, and 10, DJIA?
Sector rotation aswell as stock selection within the sector is going to be key imo. Two tier market is occuring. Healthcare, Consumer Staples, Energy, Utilities, Telecommunications, Soft Commodities.
Financials, Commodities, Capital Goods. Insurance, Cyclicals, Transportation, Technology. So I caused stock market crash 1929 yahoo answers be dumping out of this rally, as any possible correction will be too shallow and temporary to time; how to make a duct tape money clip will stay almost fully invested thru Oct with hedges.
Yeah well the peak oil bubble has to re-start sometime. Also, have to be careful with stock selection…some equities are going down the gurgler and some are holding and tracking oil more consistently. Good bullish leading indicator from mutual funds; retailers still doubting the rise which is bullish signal aswell:. Currency trader resume fund bullishness is usually only a contrarian indicator at market extremes, the crowd is usually right in the meat of the rally.
Talks about market direction, whether we are in a bear or bull market, or both. Dont agree with their range bound thesis, at least for the next several months into next year. High probability to break out of the range and new highs, albeit we might slip back into the range after Feb ? Page 41 onwards shows why BP is undervalued and the media have completely fx business analyst jobs london the potential damages.
Wont be making the same mistake twice! If you are going to make a mistake, thats life; but you better recognize it quickly, even if you are unaware you better become aware, or life will force you to!
Anon…I think you could probably post some of these comments here? Anyway regarding the Australian stock market, we might be in for a nice Q3 rally back up to ? Q3 rally is possible into August early Sept?
Might be a 4Q rally past 5,? This week we have an absolutely equal amount both bearish and bullish For the previous 2 weeks, the bull bear ratio has been hovering around par and this week that continues once again.
The last time the bull bear ratio was this low was in July and April Senior Australians Tax Thresholds The taxable income level above which Australians eligible for the Senior Australians tax offset SATO begin to pay tax will increase on 1st July Eligible single senior Australians will have no tax liability if their rebate income is: The SATO entitlement reduces by Markets might go sideways to up here.
AUD looks really good, have backed the truck up and am scaling into EUR. Anyone see the media reports re: BP oil dissipating and they cant find it! Microbial dissipation along the sea floor or something?
Could be a chargeback for BP now that the oil is dissipating. What a rediculous over reaction this was! We have to be careful here gents. Theres alot of false bottoms occurring across various instruments. This market is looking dangerous in terms of relative price performance for stocks in the same sector, aswell as ST rallies sucking in intermediate duration trend investors. Must always know your VAR, tail risk, risk collars. Capital preservation at all costs.
The consumer metrics chart is getting worse! And to top it off the US GDP figure was below expectations that were already expecting softness. If we break these levels then we could go higher.
The bottoming process we just experienced gives a high probability for a lower high put command unix example followed by a near retest of lows under 10,ish.
So far was good on Euro, lets hope it works on this index read. But the economy is slowing much more than I anticipated in my modeling. Not how much money does the runner up on survivor get to be complacent here, takes you a small amount of time to lose it and years to replace it.
Cut risk when markets rise meaningfully and increase risk when markets are at statistical lows. If the pound moves inverse to the XAO, this is abit of a concern for markets post August as seeing big breakout setups on the GBP. The correlation could break or weaken so keep iko forex review in mind.
I saw similar setups in April about 4 weeks before the markets rolled over. But given recency bias, I doubt we will have the same sort of correction as was in May; that was brutal. So the GBP is starting to look like the next big move in the currency market more and more. Volatility on these pairs are high so drawdowns will jquery set selected option based on text inevitable and scaling in will be key.
Looking for perhaps late August move on the pound. Low volumes on the XAO, pretty bullish sign as you come out of market bottoms. Looks like there is alot of stuck shorts who are putting off covering as they think its a sure bet monthly mean reversion will occur at some point. Stay the trend until price confirms. Probably a bullish sign I binary options helpers like selling as I usually sell too early?
Wow what a rally overnight, looks like shorters were covering en mass. The DJIA is near my target range…there is alot more risk than reward making isk eve online guide these levels.
The faster you bounce like this, the more likely its a bull trap. But important to note alot of value stocks will breakout at the top of a range, so timing from individual stocks can be quite different to timing the index.
Markets have gone from discounting the GDP slowing to now not discounting it at all. USD Index has gone down for over 8 weeks straight, so a 99 binary options collar would be expected soon. Its at critical support. ES futures prices for further dated contracts are now pricing in a fall in the index. This is similar to what I was seeing in the VIX when it was at record lows…i.
VIX contracts for future dates were alot higher than the current price. Feeling very uncomfortable at these levels. How you invest in flat or declining markets determines your ability to outperform over the longterm —.
Looks like XAO is settling at these levels, might go up or down — not sure. Markets were anticipating US stimulus and now Bernanke has said he will wait. So this USD capitulation and subsequent inverse move on equities is starting to look exhausted.
Big move on Pfizer PFE last night. Results were finally better than comex gold futures trading hours after having just ok results from Citigroup and Sanofi Aventis. Just shows you stock picking is key not just sector selection. When enough people hate a technique it begins to work again and produce outsized returns, until its in vogue again and then the method loses its edge.
Albeit Jim tends to be bearish at markets bottoms bombay stock exchange building architect the past, his longerterm macro calls have been relatively accurate.
All posts by this poster is not financial advice or a reccomendation to do something. Not much happening today. XAO up abit following Wallstreets lead. People are going to have a tough time claiming outside of direct obvious damage given how quick things have been forex cft-626b mp3 fm transmitter plugged and now oil dissipating.
For example people claiming losses on their house prices is going to be forex successful managed trading accounts reviews hard to prove, given the real estate market.
Looks like everyone concerned have over-reacted due to the speed of the media cycle these days and the government have done the same. Well Rogers has a good track record Biker. He said China what is a call option delta going to boom 20 years before you even knew about their growth. And Japan was going to implode in the mid 80s just before the 20 year bear market.
He was calling for a commodities supercycle in the early to mid hooper stock options. He does like Australia longterm, but says our politicians are almost as bad as Americas and we need to bring in earnest money rental property spending and deficits, or our future will be much less certain.
Atm the trend on the XAO is up. So I calculate real return on stock market wait for price action to confirm the trend has exhausted, which objectively atm looks a fair way off.
Terrible jobs number, still got all my hedges on. Am thinking of increasing some of my USD long. XAO Rally is starting to look exhausted. But you never know when these rallies end, and they can go on for much trading strategies bear market than you anticipate. I am now hedged in a way that my portfolio should rise in both directions aslong as there is asx stock market performance extreme index upside.
Its rising today even though the XAO is falling daily forecasts binary options rose yesterday when the DJIA rose.
Never let a loss get too big, because you are too stubborn to admit an error and begin to rationalize it. Be binweevils mulch and dosh maker to seek and take personal professional advice from someone familiar with your circumstances and needs.
Looks like any upside from here is high risk for the next few months anyways if averages hold out. Although Statistically August tends to be stronger in the middle than at the begining or end. Been relaxing but did make a couple of changes. Unwound my hedges as I think we are close to a bottom here. Been buying CL aswell as GC. Major support around 10, DJIA and 4, for the XAO.
I wont be unwinding shorts on that line early. Alot of retail investors will look at the past price action and assume another shallow pullback and then get hit from recency bias. Not sure what the XAO is doing atm. Loaded up on GC yesterday, which I mentioned in the previous post. May be slight pullback who knows but there is a big breakout comming, so will probably use puts to manage my risk instead of hard stops — want to participate to get the meat of the rally.
Never think you are better or know more than the market or people on the otherside of the trade — you will be slaughtered and carved up! XAO looks to be bottoming out. Although of the companies I hold only one so far has failed to beat or meet expectations out of 15 — with still some yet to report. Am heavily overweight ES longs waiting for the inevitable short squeeze. Am now long EUR. USD for a ST play. Plort you were about right, the market bottomed out in mid-late August.
We now seems to be on a run up to ? The mark appears to be a lot tougher to break through than I thought. I guess the mining tax, carbon tax and election outcome have probably knocked points off the market though so in a perfect world, we would be probably sitting near the level now.
Well I have stuck my neck out again and taken a punt at predicting where the market will end in Australian stock market outlook for We remain concerned about a bubble forming in the mining sector, especially among smaller resource stocks, with many leaping by more than per cent in just six months. The emergence of inflation in China could result in authorities being forced to slow growth and, as a result, reduce demand for Australian commodities.
The XAO looks so sick. These charts look absolutely lurid. Pulling away from buying anymore silver, will wait for the equities crash to load up on silver only — avoiding equities like the plague for the next few years. Anon I steer clear of shorting simply because I have the market timing skills of three legged sloth. If I were a brave fellow I would be tempted to short some of the major mining stocks and possibly the big four banks. Of course now that I have said that they will all probably rally for years!
The XAO and XJO have been tracking sideways for a year or more which amazingly I did anticipate quite some time ago. Hence I have not been much of an active investor lately. At this stage I will stick with my Australian stock market outlook for and reckon we will end the year with the All Ords closing somewhere between Easiest and least stressful way to play it. Silver looks like its bouncing, might get lucky with this?
Should of lost on this, was a stupid entry. Only positive is its above the upslopping Probably a decent bounce then will fall again. I must be rusty. I know absolutely nothing about it personally — Am just quoting a source that I read recently. Thats a sobering stat Ned. It needs to retest its breakout point.
Whatever happens you have to hedge silver if you buy anything at much lower levels, just too uncertain over the next couple of years. But I have some patterns that I use that verify this rise is much bigger and very longterm. Its not the same as the 70s bubble in terms of end stage. This is the problem trying to invest prior to equity crashes. It can become a value trap. Thats why its important to probe your investments, not go in too hard.
My position is not big, thankgod. Send in the spies and not the army, and not many comeback lol.
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Silver will rise with war and usually outperforms equity crashes on the way up, so thats another thing to contemplate.
Well thats a different perspective. Jim Rogers seems to live and die by the inflation adj price levels. I listen to his calls, and have benefited from it, so I respect the guy, he does his homework. At best it means a range and slightly lower, at worst a complete collapse. The question now, is there a blowoff rally in equities before a crash, or a slow decline or a complete capitulation?
Looks like XAO will significantly outperform the DJIA this year from current levels. Although looking at the quality stocks within the DOW 30, they will probably rise decently in the next few years, whilst the crap implodes. Walmart for instance has been doing nothing for a decade price wise, whilst its EPS has risen considerably and continued to buyback its stock.
Likely most are questioning the recovery understandably and theres probably alot of baby boomers going from saving and investing, to now living off their funds. It would make sense to go into more cash as you become dependant on your funds to live, creating selling pressure. Or it could just be many other reasons, who knows. The outperformance of XAO, from here, makes sense given the disparity between the two. Perhaps a few dead cat rate drops, or the speculation of RBA rate drops will lead people back into the markets longterm for the final blowoff rally into next year?
Given the retail investor support for silver post crash, it could be reasonable to assume there are alot of people on the sidelines who missed out on the recent rally, creating a floor on the XAO this year.
Either way it seems downside is limited from current levels. Statistically is less likely. Also August-Oct is very dangerous. So what to do. Probably wait or pick things that you would hold through a bad crash and the possibility of XAO 3, in a few years. Large Cap Utilities and Consumer Staples probably main things that would hold up, silver and gold too, although gold is very overdue a correction at some point, given silver tends to be a leading indicator for gold.
At the sametime, statistically theres a very high probability that DJIA is 11, or below by EOY. This is a very confusing setup, which is only making me more cautious and confused longterm. Most of the charts in the XAO look terrible, lots in downtrends. So even if I wanted to invest longterm theres not many buy signals. Probably wise to avoid small caps, given the risks.
The LT buy signals may only come post August-Oct correction, or we could correct heavily in June, who knows. One would assume the quality growing large caps will more likely go up in late stage bull markets and into the foreseeable future.
Probably the best course is to wait for the DJIA to implode during Aug-Sept and then take longterm positions in the XAO, or slowly accumulate with the knowledge that it could fall further, short term. This drivel is not advice. Seek a licensed financial advisor.
Runaway from the incompetent ones. LT investments ideas may change as things change, donot rely on them. Would like to buy more, but everything just looks so ugly technically. Am avoiding the States, and sticking with the XAO.
But why should that be seen as a problem for most people? Anyone with a superannuation fund should be concerned because more than any other super asset, Australian shares have the biggest influence on our living standards in retirement.
My broad brush take on things is that Oz has got a demographic problem that will weigh on it for about 40 years Anon. Though potentially offset by immigration to a degree. So, to the extent that Asia can continue to develop by a combination of changing its economy to rely on its own consumption, and through seeing Westerm living standars drop to make the west more competitive globallyOz will continue to do comparatively well — Though expect lots of volatility.
Or should they effectively default — Because, truth be told, their basic economic position really is no better than that of Greece I gather? Not sure Ned, you know alot more about these issues, whilst being smarter.
The ASX is taking more damage because it includes a lot of mining and banks stocks. But where is the bottom? Anyone see anything to buy? Alot giving 6 red candle reversal signals. MACD is in downtrend.
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional advice before proceeding with any financial decision. Total disaster levels would be 3, Hopefully it goes down there, would be a very good entry for longterm holdings. Still looks like 4, for now. Then the major leg down to 4, Not buying here for the possibility of a point rebound, with risk of More risk than reward, no thanks.
FTSE is holding and hovering at 5, A break one way or other would seem to be called for??? Yep, however given its oversold we are due for some sort of bounce. Better to be late and make sure the bottom is really a bottom, than be too early and get crushed.
But yeah, its definitely a big multistage reversal. Buy the dip mentally will get you crushed. People seem to have in their minds as to buying weakness. Well the Dow Jones rose overnight so it looks like the All Ords will bounce off the bottom of its trading range today. Personally when I see the market dip much below I reckon it is moving into the oversold range as my guesstimate is that the bear market bottom is around But I doubt stocks will rally much past for quite some time as I wrote back in May in: Why is the Australian stock market unable to rally?
So it looks like we might have a few more months of what we have had over the last year or so…a market that is basically moving sideways. Gold stocks look good aswell, should see a rally in quality gold equities, even if the markets go into a sideways topping pattern 4, Not sure about Gold itself; you could argue that its due one last blowoff rally, who knows.
We used to believe uranium was cheap fuel. Glad we got outa DYL years and years ago. I bet they cant raise by very much. You know more about it than me. Seeing retail investors preparing to dump and go to cash across the board, next 3 trading days will be a mth bottom imo.
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So another points on the dow and on the XAO. If the XAO breaks the lows of that all goes out the window. Any investments need very heavy hedging and expecting further downside. And will obviously exit quickly if things go against me. For those of you who think small caps turbo charge your returns, look at the current small cap index and blood everywhere.
To me small caps are gambling, akin to playing lotto. Small caps have atypically outperformed large caps for a decade, but eventually mean reversion occurs. This comment should not be taken as financial advice. Will turn on dime if I see a hint of a collapse. Looks like it will be an ugly day for the stock market after the Dow Jones slumped overnight. At this rate it will be a struggle to get back over by the end of the year and you get the feeling the downside risks are growing daily.
So that is 4, But it might take 12 months to get down there, or we could just capitulate now. All posts by me are not be taken as financial advice or investment advice. Infact fully expect a drawdown at some stage, its inevitable.
All good here Ta Plornt. Hope the same applies to you. While Brisbane housing has dropped 6. Lots of good economic data out everything beat estimates and the DJIA is barely moving. Not a good sign for next week. That Empire Manufacturing number yesterday was horrendous.
Not in natgas anymore, sold that a few days ago when Goldman issued a sell notice for a tiny gain. Here comes the big capitulation drop over the next week. XAO has broken support. If we follow the Mid 70s type reversal after such a huge rally, we This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Looks like Paulson is one of the first high profile victims of tail risk, i expect more to come. Theres never just one cockroach in the kitchen. All posts by me should not be taken as financial or investment advice.
VIX looks like its topped, temporarily at least. So on that basis there may be some rallies here. But gotta keep an eye on it as it could be coiling for a bigger move. Saw alot of dumping in the options market re: Snp 6 weeks down. Occured 16 times since Ha ha, good ol Ned. New you had to be around somewhere mate. I just looked to see what people are thinking of shares lately.
Looks like things are on the up tonight but overall the Aus scene is pretty compressed. I enjoy these deflation fear turn-outs though because it creates great discounts and good value. I recently had a conversation with a young bloke about property. Highly leveraged but positively geared due to discount purchasing. Not in mining areas of course…. But then I thought later about whether it may be a case of buying wrong side of the tracks.
I have no idea how to answer that question. Having fun in limbo though it seems. Obviously the following is not financial or investment advice. Lach, im in Gold bluechip equities, airplane interior manufacturers definitely not airline stocks. Everything looks terrible in equities, so be very very careful, value traps everywhere. Gotta have otm puts on for each stock. No options for mejust small positions for risk control.
I can hold them forever and I will if need be. Other areas of interest are oil,coal and gas in the past though currently holding none. Well I hope we dont retest the lows. If we followed the 87 recovery, we would — which means a 2 year downtrend, with no decent uptrends in the equities market.
If you want to see what a market bottom looks like, look at the uranium market. I want to see that kind of sentiment in the equities market generally. Constant new lows taking people out over and over and over till they give up.
Thats not happening right now. Mr Market eats those for lunch.
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I concur with your thoughts on commods and AUDs. I am an inflationist but not a green shoot believer at this time. I see the markets as being highly engineered. If a stock hits a solid long term support then I would buy even if the market index looks like it has not bottomed. Some stocks have done that, others have not. If there is a harder pull-back into deeper support areas I would spend a few more dollars there too.
But we do what works for us individually allowing for our emotional makeup and what we can realistically do in a situation. Ned I am also trapped under a pile of paper as I try and sort things out for the taxman. I generally stay clear of the stock market in June unless I spot some stock s being oversold as investors tidy things up for the end of the FY.
Or if I had, it had never really registered. Missus did the same, Ned. Salpacked nearly all of it, in fact! The most important thing with the markets is what you do under pressure and what you do in big situations and in bear markets.
Knowing alot about the markets is not enough. Hesitation and indecision will kill you. Thinking you are better than everyone will squash you like a bug, yet so many people think they are the worlds greatest, with dellusions of grandeur. I know I was in the past.
Defence wins games is the mantra this year. I hate losing money. I occasionally use a statistical stop from a backtested system. If it goes outside the statistical maximum losses for the backtested period, ya exit. Its not based on support levels or anything, which means its not targeted by the traders. Could never wish for such a correction.
Too many would be incinerated. Obviously psychological makeup plays a part aswell. Its amazing how many people have traded and failed. Its like a line of sheep continuously comming in to get slaughtered by the pros. I have to question who really is making money alot of time, because statistically its very small.
I suspect alot of people are inflating their returns. You kinda feel like a little ant afterwards. Alot of them go in disguise as idiots or mask as retail investors. I am a patsy and embrace my patsiness. Got to love the haters who want to see you fail, it provides motivation to go harder. I made pocket money from shares for about five years. Thanks for sharing Biker, some good lessons there. I think sticking to what you are good at is the biggie.
But its important to be actually good at it, instead of just lucky. Make sure that edge is statistically proven. But for investors this market volatility still means that your portfolio and superannuation probably have not done too much in the past 18 months and are still well behind.
There will have to be some sort of major clear out, just like the DJIA crash. The fact that precious metals are rallying and begining a bull market as equities go backwards — history is rhyming again. Looking at the DJIA, that hammer candle is bearish not a bottom, its a hangman. Those candles at the start of capitulation usually mean the index will head there at some point, and high probability it will go further than the lowest wick, so this means the bottom is now confirmed to be below 11, Additionally precious metals began a 4 year bull market from its rhyming again now.
That would mean DJIA nearer to 8, on the dow. IF that occured, that would be disastrous for the XAO. The mineral itself was being bought up and the price was climbing. S investigators traced it to the large feet of the Bunker-Hunt boys. Billy Bunker-Hunt and Bobby Bunker-Hunt Texas Oil millionaires who were slowly cornering the silver market.
I remember photo labs starting to fit silver halide recycling filters by the end of the seventies! Reason I suggest same is that the DJIA members get outed with replacements that presumably have better prospects? Ned your point about watching the All Ords, ASX and Dow Jones too closely is a valid one in my opinion. The long term charts are useful to look at, but I think it is wise to appreciate their limitations.
The way i predicted the DJIA returns in was using over years of returns and I found a stastical pattern. So using historical returns over many years works for predicting index returns. Its just me tangenting again lol. I find it interesting I guess. When I run my statistical trades, after determining which way the index will go, I only go back 11 years or more as the patterns 20 years ago are not relevant to todays markets.
I saw this problem aswell so I dropped the timeframes down. But remember Paul Tudor Jones simply used the correlation to make alot of money in the 97 crash and the Japan bubble equities crash. So simple does work at times. Leigh that works aswell. If you have something that works for you, nothing wrong with continuing to do that. Looks like gold is correcting. I think gold is in a longterm bull market, but silver may be the leading indicator for gold and we may see gold have a temporary pullback here.
I dumped my direct gold exposure and will wait for a trend to form before getting back in. But clearly gold and silver are in a bullmarket, and gold equities are mispriced, no doubt about that.
You are right silver will bust at some stage and as Greg pointed out the market will likely freeze and become illiquid, lock limit down perhaps. Alot of the public are yet to invest in PMs, which is another alarm bell for people calling it a bubble.
My system stop is Id say PMs are either in the Awareness phase or in the beginings of the Mania phase. The alternative argument is we are in the blowoff phase and the rise is a bull trap. That is a possibility aswell. This shows gold to the exuberance in the tech wreck markets. Perhaps not the greatest comparison. A better chart would be in comparison to other bubbles what are the valuations like and how much of the public were invested back then at that top relative to now.
The public in general are not heavily invested in precious metals through Mutual Funds as seen in chart 2 of the second link in post abovewhich would be a huge red light on the bubble arguments. The patterns on longterm charts can have similarities though, but are by no means without faults. If you used a 6month chart now and compared the patterns on that to something in likely the patterns that occured in 87 may not work anymore.
But if you compare the patterns on a 30 year charts over a longterm conglomerate, there are patterns there that hold true over decades. Perhaps the reason this is possible is because most people are too short a time frame, so they tend to concentrate on charts with much lesser time frames. So say the correlation is 87 and says it should go down more.
Investing is probably more of an art where uncertainty and unreliability of consistent returns are a constant. Upside breakout in AUD gold price very soon now Plornt. But longterm its obvious gold equities will do great. Goodluck to you aswell Lachlan, you seem to be investing in the right areas and have good knowledge of TA and money management.
There is a very neat down trend in place from the top of our XJO trading range to the current close around But as you say anything can happen. No idea where this will stop. Lach keep an eye on the Range to break.